The Prospective Implementation of the 2015 ATA Guidelines and Modified ATA Recurrence Risk Stratification System for Treatment of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer in a Canadian Tertiary Care Referral Setting.

Objective: To present clinical outcomes of the prospective implementation of the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines for the management of thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) using the modified ATA recurrence risk (RR) stratification system. Methods: We prospectively analyzed 612 patients with DTC treated between April 2017 and December 2021 in Calgary, Alberta. Each patient was prospectively assigned a modified ATA RR and American Joint Committee Cancer 8th edition stage. Initial risk stratification and consideration of the 2015 ATA guidelines guided surgical management as well as the indication for and dose of radioiodine (RAI) and other adjuvant therapies. Patients were assessed for their response to treatment (RTT) at 2-years postoperatively. Results: There were 479 patients who had 2-year follow-up data and were included in the study. Of these patients, there were 253 (53%) low-, 129 (27%) intermediate-, and 97 (20%) high-RR patients. Of these, 227 patients (47%) underwent total thyroidectomy (TTX) plus RAI, 178 (37%) underwent TTX only, and 74 (16%) underwent lobectomy. The RTT at 2 years was excellent for 89% (66) of patients with lobectomy, 84% (149) for TTX only, and 53% (121) for TTX plus RAI. Among 253 patients who were deemed low RR, 85% (216) had excellent RTT, 13% (32) indeterminate RTT, 2% (4) biochemical incomplete RTT, and 1 patient had structural incomplete RTT. The intermediate RR group had the following RTT outcomes: 64% (83) excellent, 23% (30) indeterminate, 6% (7) biochemical incomplete, and 7% (9) structural incomplete. The high RR group had the worst RTT outcomes, with 38% (37) excellent, 19% (18) indeterminate, 10% (10) biochemical incomplete, and 33% (32) structural incomplete RTT. Conclusions: The 2015 ATA RR stratification system is useful for predicting disease status at 2-year post-treatment in patients with DTC. The 2015 ATA guidelines and modified ATA RR stratification treatment recommendations may reduce thyroid cancer overtreatment by including lobectomy as a definitive treatment option for low-risk thyroid cancers and selective use of RAI for intermediate and high-risk patients.

Frequency and Patterns of Brain Infarction in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: NAVIGATE ESUS Trial.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The spectrum of brain infarction in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) has not been well characterized. Our objective was to define the frequency and pattern of brain infarcts detected by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) among patients with recent ESUS participating in a clinical trial. METHODS: In the NAVIGATE ESUS trial (New Approach Rivaroxaban Inhibition of Factor Xa in a Global Trial Versus ASA to Prevent Embolism in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source), an MRI substudy was carried out at 87 sites in 15 countries. Participants underwent an MRI using a specified protocol near randomization. Images were interpreted centrally by those unaware of clinical characteristics. RESULTS: Among the 918 substudy cohort participants, the mean age was 67 years and 60% were men with a median (interquartile range) of 64 (26-115) days between the qualifying ischemic stroke and MRI. On MRI, 855 (93%) had recent or chronic brain infarcts that were multiple in 646 (70%) and involved multiple arterial territories in 62% (401/646). Multiple brain infarcts were present in 68% (510/755) of those without a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack before the qualifying ESUS. Prior stroke/transient ischemic attack (P<0.001), modified Rankin Scale score >0 (P<0.001), and current tobacco use (P=0.01) were associated with multiple infarcts. Topographically, large and/or cortical infarcts were present in 89% (757/855) of patients with infarcts, while in 11% (98/855) infarcts were exclusively small and subcortical. Among those with multiple large and/or cortical infarcts, 57% (251/437) had one or more involving a different vascular territory from the qualifying ESUS. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients with ESUS, including those without prior clinical stroke or transient ischemic attack, had multiple large and/or cortical brain infarcts detected by MRI, reflecting a substantial burden of clinical stroke and covert brain infarction. Infarcts most frequently involved multiple vascular territories. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02313909.

Baseline Frailty Status Influences Recovery Patterns and Outcomes Following Alignment Correction of Cervical Deformity.

BACKGROUND: Frailty severity may be an important determinant for impaired recovery after cervical spine deformity (CD) corrective surgery. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate postop clinical recovery among CD patients between frailty states undergoing primary procedures. METHODS: Patients >18 yr old undergoing surgery for CD with health-related quality of life (HRQL) data at baseline, 3-mo, and 1-yr postoperative were identified. Patients were stratified by the modified CD frailty index scale from 0 to 1 (no frailty [NF] <0.3, mild/severe fraily [F] >0.3). Patients in NF and F groups were propensity score matched for TS-CL (T1 slope [TS] minus angle between the C2 inferior end plate and the C7 inferior end plate [CL]) to control for baseline deformity. Area under the curve was calculated for follow-up time intervals determining overall normalized, time-adjusted HRQL outcomes; Integrated Health State (IHS) was compared between NF and F groups. RESULTS: A total of 106 CD patients were included (61.7 yr, 66% F, 27.7 kg/m2)-by frailty group: 52.8% NF, 47.2% F. After propensity score matching for TS-CL (mean: 38.1°), 38 patients remained in each of the NF and F groups. IHS-adjusted HRQL outcomes from baseline to 1 yr showed a significant difference in Euro-Qol 5 Dimension scores (NF: 1.02, F: 1.07, P = .016). No significant differences were found in the IHS Neck Disability Index (NDI) and modified Japanese Orthopedic Association between frailty groups (P > .05). F patients had more postop major complications (31.3%) compared to the NF (8.9%), P = .004, though DJK occurrence and reoperation between the groups was not significant. CONCLUSION: While all groups exhibited improved postop disability and pain scores, frail patients experienced greater amount of improvement in overall health state compared to baseline disability. This signifies that with frailty severity, patients have more room for improvement postop compared to baseline quality of life.

Predictors of Superior Recovery Kinetics in Adult Cervical Deformity Correction: An Analysis Using a Novel Area Under the Curve Methodology.

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective review of a prospective database. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify demographic, surgical, and radiographic factors that predict superior recovery kinetics following cervical deformity (CD) corrective surgery. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Analyses of CD corrective surgery use area under the curve (AUC) to assess health-related quality of life (HRQL) metrics throughout recovery. METHODS: Outcome measures were baseline (BL) to 1-year (1Y) health-related quality of life (HRQL) (Neck Disability Index [NDI]). CD criteria were C2-7 Cobb angle >10°, coronal Cobb angle >10°, C2-C7 sagittal vertical axis (cSVA) >4 cm, TS-CL >10°, or chin-brow vertical angle >25°. AUC normalization divided BL and postoperative outcomes by BL. Normalized scores (y axis) were plotted against follow-up (x axis). AUC was calculated and divided by cumulative follow-up length to determine overall, time-adjusted recovery (Integrated Health State [IHS]). IHS NDI was stratified by quartile, uppermost 25% being "Superior" Recovery Kinetics (SRK) versus "Normal" Recovery Kinetics (NRK). BL demographic, clinical, and surgical information predicted SRK using generalized linear modeling. RESULTS: Ninety-eight patients included (62 ±â€Š10 years, 28 ±â€Š6 kg/m2, 65% females, Charlson Comorbidity Index: 0.95), 6% smokers, 31% smoking history. Surgical approach was: combined (33%), posterior (49%), anterior (18%). Posterior levels fused: 8.7, anterior: 3.6, estimated blood loss: 915.9ccs, operative time: 495 minutes. Ames BL classification: cSVA (53.2% minor deformity, 46.8% moderate), TS-CL (9.8% minor, 4.3% moderate, 85.9% marked), horizontal gaze (27.4% minor, 46.6% moderate, 26% marked). Relative to BL NDI (Mean: 47), normalized NDI decreased at 3 months (0.9 ±â€Š0.5, P = 0.260) and 1Y (0.78 ±â€Š0.41, P < 0.001). NDI IHS correlated with age (P = 0.011), sex (P = 0.042), anterior approach (P = 0.042), posterior approach (P = 0.042). Greater BL pelvic tilt (PT) (SRK: 25.6°, NRK: 17°, P = 0.002), pelvic incidence-lumbar lordosis (PI-LL) (SRK: 8.4°, NRK: -2.8°, P = 0.009), and anterior approach (SRK: 34.8%, NRK: 13.3%; P = 0.020) correlated with SRK. 69.4% met MCID for NDI (<Δ-15) and 63.3% met substantial clinical benefit for NDI (<Δ-10); 100% of SRK met both MCID and substantial clinical benefit. The predictive model for SRK included (AUC = 88.1%): BL visual analog scale (VAS) EuroQol five-dimensional descriptive system (EQ5D) (odds rario [OR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.92-0.99), BL swallow sleep score (OR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01-1.06), BL PT (OR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.03-1.22), BL modified Japanese Orthopedic Association scale (mJOA) (OR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.07-2.16), BL T4-T12, BL T10-L2, BL T12-S1, and BL L1-S1. CONCLUSION: Superior recovery kinetics following CD surgery was predicted with high accuracy using BL patient-reported (VAS EQ5D, swallow sleep, mJOA) and radiographic factors (PT, TK, T10-L2, T12-S1, L1-S1). Awareness of these factors can improve decision-making and reduce postoperative neck disability.Level of Evidence: 3.

The impact of postoperative neurologic complications on recovery kinetics in cervical deformity surgery.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to investigate which neurologic complications affect clinical outcomes the most following cervical deformity (CD) surgery. METHODS: CD patients (C2-C7 Cobb >10°, CL >10°, cSVA >4 cm or chin-brow vertical angle >25°) >18 years with follow-up surgical and health-related quality of life (HRQL) data were included. Descriptive analyses assessed demographics. Neurologic complications assessed were C5 motor deficit, central neurodeficit, nerve root motor deficits, nerve sensory deficits, radiculopathy, and spinal cord deficits. Neurologic complications were classified as major or minor, then: intraoperative, before discharge, before 30 days, before 90 days, and after 90 days. HRQL outcomes were assessed at 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year. Integrated health state (IHS) for the neck disability index (NDI), EQ5D, and modified Japanese Orthopaedic Association (mJOA) were assessed using all follow-up time points. A subanalysis assessed IHS outcomes for patients with 2Y follow-up. RESULTS: 153 operative CD patients were included. Baseline characteristics: 61 years old, 63% female, body mass index 29.7, operative time 531.6 ± 275.5, estimated blood loss 924.2 ± 729.5, 49% posterior approach, 18% anterior approach, 33% combined. 18% of patients experienced a total of 28 neurologic complications in the postoperative period (15 major). There were 7 radiculopathy, 6 motor deficits, 6 sensory deficits, 5 C5 motor deficits, 2 central neurodeficits, and 2 spinal cord deficits. 11.2% of patients experienced neurologic complications before 30 days (7 major) and 15% before 90 days (12 major). 12% of neurocomplication patients went on to have revision surgery within 6 months and 18% within 2 years. Neurologic complication patients had worse mJOA IHS scores at 1Y but no significant differences between NDI and EQ5D (0.003 vs. 0.873, 0.458). When assessing individual complications, central neurologic deficits and spinal cord deficit patients had the worst outcomes at 1Y (2.6 and 1.8 times worse NDI scores, P = 0.04, no improvement in EQ5D, 8% decrease in EQ5D). Patients with sensory deficits had the best NDI and EQ5D outcomes at 1Y (31% decrease in NDI, 8% increase in EQ5D). In a subanalysis, neurologic patients trended toward worse NDI and mJOA IHS outcomes (P = 0.263, 0.163). CONCLUSIONS: 18% of patients undergoing CD surgery experienced a neurologic complication, with 15% within 3 months. Patients who experienced any neurologic complication had worse mJOA recovery kinetics by 1 year and trended toward worse recovery at 2 years. Of the neurologic complications, central neurologic deficits and spinal cord deficits were the most detrimental.

Microbleeds and the Effect of Anticoagulation in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: An Exploratory Analysis of the NAVIGATE ESUS Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The reported associations of cerebral microbleeds with recurrent stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage have raised concerns regarding antithrombotic treatment in patients with a history of stroke and microbleeds on magnetic resonance imaging. Objective: To characterize microbleeds in embolic strokes of undetermined source (ESUS) and report interactions between microbleeds and the effects of random assignment to anticoagulant vs antiplatelet therapy. Design, Setting, and Participants: Subgroup analyses of the New Approach Rivaroxaban Inhibition of Factor Xa in a Global Trial vs Aspirin to Prevent Embolism in ESUS (NAVIGATE ESUS) international, double-blind, randomized, event-driven phase 3 clinical trial. Participants were enrolled between December 2014 and September 2017 and followed up for a median of 11 months. The study setting included 459 stroke recruitment centers in 31 countries. Patients aged 50 years or older who had neuroimaging-confirmed ESUS between 7 days and 6 months before screening were eligible. Of these 7213 NAVIGATE ESUS participants, 3699 (51%) had information on cerebral microbleeds reported on their baseline clinical magnetic resonance imaging and were eligible for these analyses. Patients with a prior history of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage were excluded from the NAVIGATE ESUS trial. Interventions: Rivaroxaban, 15 mg, compared with aspirin, 100 mg, daily. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was recurrent stroke. Secondary outcomes were ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and all-cause mortality. Results: Microbleeds were present in 395 of 3699 participants (11%). Of patients with cerebral microbleeds, mean (SD) age was 69.5 (9.4) years, 241 were men (61%), and 201 were White (51%). Advancing age (odds ratio [OR] per year, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04), East Asian race/ethnicity (OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.04-2.37), hypertension (OR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.54-3.15), multiterritorial infarcts (OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.42-2.67), chronic infarcts (OR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.42-2.23), and occult intracerebral hemorrhage (OR, 5.23; 95% CI, 2.76-9.90) were independently associated with microbleeds. The presence of microbleeds was associated with a 1.5-fold increased risk of recurrent stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.5; 95% CI, 1.0-2.3), a 4-fold risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (HR, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.3-13.9), a 2-fold risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.1-4.3), and strictly lobar microbleeds with an approximately 2.5-fold risk of ischemic stroke (HR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.3-4.3). There were no interactions between microbleeds and treatment assignments for recurrent stroke, ischemic stroke, or all-cause mortality. The HR of intracerebral hemorrhage on rivaroxaban was similar between persons with microbleeds (HR, 3.1; 95% CI, 0.3-30.0) and persons without microbleeds (HR, 3.0; 95% CI, 0.6-14.7; interaction P = .97). Conclusions and Relevance: Microbleeds mark an increased risk of recurrent stroke, ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and mortality in ESUS but do not appear to influence effects of rivaroxaban on clinical outcomes. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02313909.

Rivaroxaban for Prevention of Covert Brain Infarcts and Cognitive Decline: The COMPASS MRI Substudy.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Covert brain infarcts are associated with cognitive decline. It is not known whether therapies that prevent symptomatic stroke prevent covert infarcts. COMPASS compared rivaroxaban with and without aspirin with aspirin for the prevention of stroke, myocardial infarction, and vascular death in participants with stable vascular disease and was terminated early because of benefits of rivaroxaban 2.5 mg twice daily plus aspirin over aspirin. We obtained serial magnetic resonance imagings and cognitive tests in a consenting subgroup of COMPASS patients to examine treatment effects on infarcts, cerebral microbleeds, and white matter hyperintensities. METHODS: Baseline and follow-up magnetic resonance imagings were completed in 1445 participants with a mean (SD) interval of 2.0 (0.7) years. Whole-brain T1, T2 fluid-attenuated inversion recovery, T2* sequences were centrally interpreted by blinded, trained readers. Participants had serial measurements of cognition and function. The primary end point was the proportion of participants with incident covert infarcts. Secondary end points were the composite of clinical stroke and covert brain infarcts, cerebral microbleeds, and white matter hyperintensities. RESULTS: At baseline, 493 (34.1%) participants had infarcts. Incident covert infarcts occurred in 55 (3.8%) participants. In the overall trial rivaroxaban plus aspirin reduced ischemic stroke by 49% (0.7% versus 1.4%; hazard ratio [95% CI], 0.51 [0.38-0.68]). In the magnetic resonance imaging substudy the effects of rivaroxaban+aspirin versus aspirin were: covert infarcts: 2.7% versus 3.5% (odds ratio [95% CI], 0.77 [0.37-1.60]); Covert infarcts or ischemic stroke: 2.9% versus 5.3% (odds ratio [95% CI], 0.53 [0.27-1.03]). Incident microbleeds occurred in 6.6% of participants and 65.7% of participants had an increase in white matter hyperintensities volume with no effect of treatment for either end point. There was no effect on cognitive tests. CONCLUSIONS: Covert infarcts were not significantly reduced by treatment with rivaroxaban and aspirin but estimates for the combination of ischemic stroke and covert infarcts were consistent with the effect on ischemic stroke in the overall trial. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01776424.

New Horizons in Pharmacologic Therapy for Secondary Stroke Prevention.

Importance: Even with currently available therapies and lifestyle modifications following an ischemic stroke, there remains a substantial residual lifetime risk of stroke recurrence and cardiovascular morbidity. This review summarizes emerging novel therapeutic approaches that have demonstrated signals of efficacy for prevention of noncardioembolic stroke from phase II and phase III randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and provides an overview of drug regimens that have had promising results in primary stroke prevention and could be considered for further evaluation. Observations: After a minor acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack, patients bear a high cardiovascular risk that is insufficiently addressed by long-term antiplatelet treatment. The potent combination of low-dose rivaroxaban with aspirin as an antithrombotic option for the secondary prevention in patients with clinical atherosclerosis and a history of previous stroke warrants further study. Two international RCTs are currently evaluating the utility of oral factor XI inhibitors combined with antiplatelets for secondary, noncardioembolic ischemic stroke prevention. Aggressive lipid management with statins has been shown to ameliorate ischemic stroke recurrence and total cardiovascular risk. Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors are drug regimens that researchers have suggested confer additional protection against stroke recurrence, while antisense oligonucleotide therapies targeting lipoprotein(a) have been reported to hold great promise as a future therapeutic strategy to decrease the residual cardiovascular risk mediated through lipoprotein(a). Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists are newer antidiabetic medications, recently highlighted because of their consistently greater benefit on stroke reduction compared with other cardiovascular outcomes. Conclusions and Relevance: There are currently several exciting emerging opportunities in secondary stroke prevention, with RCTs investigating novel antithrombotic, hypolipidemic, anti-inflammatory, and antidiabetic agents with novel mechanisms that are likely to reduce the future burden of recurrent stroke.

Intracranial and systemic atherosclerosis in the NAVIGATE ESUS trial: Recurrent stroke risk and response to antithrombotic therapy.

BACKGROUND: Non-stenotic intracranial and systemic atherosclerosis are associated with ischemic stroke. We report frequency and response to anticoagulant vs. antiplatelet prophylaxis of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) who have non-stenotic intracranial atherosclerosis and/or systemic atherosclerosis. METHODS: Exploratory analysis of the international NAVIGATE ESUS randomized trial comparing rivaroxaban 15mg daily with aspirin 100mg daily in 7213 patients with recent ESUS. Among participants with results of intracranial arterial imaging with either computed tomographic angiography (CTA) or magnetic resonance angiography (MRA), the frequency and predictors of non-stenotic intracranial and systemic atherosclerosis and responses to antithrombotic therapy were assessed. RESULTS: Among 4723 participants with available intracranial CTA or MRA results (65% of the trial cohort), the prevalence of intracranial atherosclerosis was 16% (n=739). Patient features independently associated with intracranial atherosclerosis included East Asian region (odds ratio 2.7, 95%CI 2.2,3.3) and cervical carotid plaque (odds ratio 2.3, 95%CI 1.9,2.7), among others. The rate of recurrent ischemic stroke averaged 4.8%/year among those with intracranial atherosclerosis vs. 5.0.%/year for those without (HR 0.95, 95%CI 0.65, 1.4). Among those with intracranial atherosclerosis, the recurrent ischemic stroke rate was higher if assigned to rivaroxaban (5.8%/year) vs. aspirin (3.7%/year), but the difference was not statistically significant (HR 1.6, 95%CI 0.78, 3.3). There was trend for the effect of antithrombotic treatments to be different according to the presence or absence of intracranial atherosclerosis (pinteraction=0.09). Among participants with evidence of systemic atherosclerosis by either history or imaging (n=3820), recurrent ischemic stroke rates were similar among those assigned to rivaroxaban (5.5%/year) vs. aspirin (4.9%/year)(HR 1.1, 95%CI 0.84, 1.5). CONCLUSIONS: East Asia region was the strongest factor associated with intracranial atherosclerosis. There were no statistically significant differences between rivaroxaban and aspirin prophylaxis for recurrent ischemic stroke in patients with non-stenotic intracranial atherosclerosis and/or systemic atherosclerosis.

Characteristics of Recurrent Ischemic Stroke After Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The concept of embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) unifies a subgroup of cryptogenic strokes based on neuroimaging, a defined minimum set of diagnostic tests, and exclusion of certain causes. Despite an annual stroke recurrence rate of 5%, little is known about the etiology underlying recurrent stroke after ESUS. Objective: To identify the stroke subtype of recurrent ischemic strokes after ESUS, to explore the interaction with treatment assignment in each category, and to examine the consistency of cerebral location of qualifying ESUS and recurrent ischemic stroke. Design, Setting, and Participants: The NAVIGATE-ESUS trial was a randomized clinical trial conducted from December 23, 2014, to October 5, 2017. The trial compared the efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban and aspirin in patients with recent ESUS (n = 7213). Ischemic stroke was validated in 309 of the 7213 patients by adjudicators blinded to treatment assignment and classified by local investigators into the categories ESUS or non-ESUS (ie, cardioembolic, atherosclerotic, lacunar, other determined cause, or insufficient testing). Five patients with recurrent strokes that could not be defined as ischemic or hemorrhagic in absence of neuroimaging or autopsy were excluded. Data for this secondary post hoc analysis were analyzed from March to June 2019. Interventions: Patients were randomly assigned to receive rivaroxaban, 15 mg/d, or aspirin, 100 mg/d. Main Outcomes and Measures: Association of recurrent ESUS with stroke characteristics. Results: A total of 309 patients (205 men [66%]; mean [SD] age, 68 [10] years) had ischemic stroke identified during the median follow-up of 11 (interquartile range [IQR], 12) months (annualized rate, 4.6%). Diagnostic testing was insufficient for etiological classification in 39 patients (13%). Of 270 classifiable ischemic strokes, 156 (58%) were ESUS and 114 (42%) were non-ESUS (37 [32%] cardioembolic, 26 [23%] atherosclerotic, 35 [31%] lacunar, and 16 [14%] other determined cause). Atrial fibrillation was found in 27 patients (9%) with recurrent ischemic stroke and was associated with higher morbidity (median change in modified Rankin scale score 2 [IQR, 3] vs 0 (IQR, 1]) and mortality (15% vs 1%) than other causes. Risk of recurrence did not differ significantly by subtype between treatment groups. For both the qualifying and recurrent strokes, location of infarct was more often in the left (46% and 54%, respectively) than right hemisphere (40% and 37%, respectively) or brainstem or cerebellum (14% and 9%, respectively). Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary analysis of randomized clinical trial data, most recurrent strokes after ESUS were embolic and of undetermined source. Recurrences associated with atrial fibrillation were a minority but were more often disabling and fatal. More extensive investigation to identify the embolic source is important toward an effective antithrombotic strategy. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02313909.

Does Patient Frailty Status Influence Recovery Following Spinal Fusion for Adult Spinal Deformity?: An Analysis of Patients With 3-Year Follow-up.

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective review of a prospective database. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate postop clinical recovery among adult spinal deformity (ASD) patients between frailty states undergoing primary procedures SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA.: Frailty severity may be an important determinant for impaired recovery after corrective surgery. METHODS: It included ASD patients with health-related quality of life (HRQLs) at baseline (BL), 1 year (1Y), and 3 years (3Y). Patients stratified by frailty by ASD-frailty index scale 0-1(no frailty: <0.3 [NF], mild: 0.3-0.5 [MF], severe: >0.5 [SF]). Demographics, alignment, and SRS-Schwab modifiers were assessed with χ/paired t tests to compare HRQLs: Scoliosis Research Society 22-question Questionnaire (SRS-22), Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) Back/Leg Pain, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI). Area-under-the-curve (AUC) method generated normalized HRQL scores at baseline (BL) and f/u intervals (1Y, 3Y). AUC was calculated for each f/u, and total area was divided by cumulative f/u, generating one number describing recovery (Integrated Health State [IHS]). RESULTS: A total of 191 patients were included (59 years, 80% females). Breakdown of patients by frailty status: 43.6% NF, 40.8% MF, 15.6% SF. SF patients were older (P = 0.003), >body mass index (P = 0.002). MF and SF were significantly (P < 0.001) more malaligned at BL: pelvic tilt (NF: 21.6°; MF: 27.3°; SF: 22.1°), pelvic incidence and lumbar lordosis (7.4°, 21.2°, 19.7°), sagittal vertical axis (31 mm, 87 mm, 82 mm). By SRS-Schwab, NF were mostly minor (40%), and MF and SF markedly deformed (64%, 57%). Frailty groups exhibited BL to 3Y improvement in SRS-22, ODI, NRS Back/Leg (P < 0.001). After HRQL normalization, SF had improvement in SRS-22 at year 1 and year 3 (P < 0.001), and NRS Back at 1Y. 3Y IHS showed a significant difference in SRS-22 (NF: 1.2 vs. MF: 1.32 vs. SF: 1.69, P < 0.001) and NRS Back Pain (NF: 0.52, MF: 0.66, SF: 0.6, P = 0.025) between frailty groups. SF had more complications (79%). SF/marked deformity had larger invasiveness score (112) compared to MF/moderate deformity (86.2). Controlling for baseline deformity and invasiveness, SF showed more improvement in SRS-22 IHS (NF: 1.21, MF: 1.32, SF: 1.66, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Although all frailty groups exhibited improved postop disability/pain scores, SF patients recovered better in SRS-22 and NRS Back. Despite SF patients having more complications and larger invasiveness scores, they had overall better patient-reported outcomes, signifying that with frailty severity, patients have more room for improvement postop compared to BL quality of life. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3.

Bleeding and New Cancer Diagnosis in Patients With Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Patients treated with antithrombotic drugs are at risk of bleeding. Bleeding may be the first manifestation of underlying cancer. METHODS: We examined new cancers diagnosed in relation to gastrointestinal or genitourinary bleeding among patients enrolled in the COMPASS trial (Cardiovascular Outcomes for People Using Anticoagulation Strategies) and determined the hazard of new cancer diagnosis after bleeding at these sites. RESULTS: Of 27 395 patients enrolled (mean age, 68 years; women, 21%), 2678 (9.8%) experienced any (major or minor) bleeding, 713 (2.6%) experienced major bleeding, and 1084 (4.0%) were diagnosed with cancer during a mean follow-up of 23 months. Among 2678 who experienced bleeding, 257 (9.9%) were subsequently diagnosed with cancer. Gastrointestinal bleeding was associated with a 20-fold higher hazard of new gastrointestinal cancer diagnosis (7.4% versus 0.5%; hazard ratio [HR], 20.6 [95% CI, 15.2-27.8]) and 1.7-fold higher hazard of new nongastrointestinal cancer diagnosis (3.8% versus 3.1%; HR, 1.70 [95% CI, 1.20-2.40]). Genitourinary bleeding was associated with a 32-fold higher hazard of new genitourinary cancer diagnosis (15.8% versus 0.8%; HR, 32.5 [95% CI, 24.7-42.9]), and urinary bleeding was associated with a 98-fold higher hazard of new urinary cancer diagnosis (14.2% versus 0.2%; HR, 98.5; 95% CI, 68.0-142.7). Nongastrointestinal, nongenitourinary bleeding was associated with a 3-fold higher hazard of nongastrointestinal, nongenitourinary cancers (4.4% versus 1.9%; HR, 3.02 [95% CI, 2.32-3.91]). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with atherosclerosis treated with antithrombotic drugs, any gastrointestinal or genitourinary bleeding was associated with higher rates of new cancer diagnosis. Any gastrointestinal or genitourinary bleeding should prompt investigation for cancers at these sites. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01776424.

Efficacy and Safety of Rivaroxaban Versus Aspirin in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source and Carotid Atherosclerosis.

Background and Purpose- The sources of emboli in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) are multiple and may not respond uniformly to anticoagulation. In this exploratory subgroup analysis of patients with carotid atherosclerosis in the NAVIGATE (New Approach Rivaroxaban Inhibition of Factor Xa in a Global Trial Versus ASA to Prevent Embolism)-ESUS trial, we assessed whether the treatment effect in this subgroup is consistent with the overall trial population and investigated the association of carotid atherosclerosis with recurrent ischemic stroke. Methods- Carotid atherosclerosis was analyzed either as the presence of mild (ie, 20%-49%) atherosclerotic stenosis or, separately, as the presence of carotid plaque. Primary efficacy outcome was ischemic stroke recurrence. Safety outcomes were major bleeding and symptomatic intracerebral bleeding. Results- Carotid plaque was present in 40% of participants and mild carotid stenosis in 11%. There was no significant difference in ischemic stroke recurrence between rivaroxaban- and aspirin-treated patients among 490 patients with carotid stenosis (5.0 versus 5.9/100 patient-years, respectively, hazard ratio [HR], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.39-1.87; P for interaction of treatment effect with patients without carotid stenosis 0.78) and among 2905 patients with carotid plaques (5.9 versus 4.9/100 patient-years, respectively, HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.86-1.68; P for interaction of treatment effect with patients without carotid stenosis 0.2). Among patients with carotid plaque, major bleeding was more frequent in rivaroxaban-treated patients compared with aspirin-treated (2.0 versus 0.5/100 patient-years, HR, 3.75; 95% CI, 1.63-8.65). Patients with carotid stenosis had similar rate of ischemic stroke recurrence compared with those without (5.4 versus 4.9/100 patient-years, respectively, HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.73-1.69), but there was a strong trend of higher rate of ischemic stroke recurrence in patients with carotid plaque compared with those without (5.4 versus 4.3/100 patient-years, respectively, HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.99-1.54). Conclusions- In ESUS patients with carotid atherosclerosis, we found no difference in efficacy between rivaroxaban and aspirin for prevention of recurrent stroke, but aspirin was safer, consistent with the overall trial results. Carotid plaque was much more often present ipsilateral to the qualifying ischemic stroke than contralateral, supporting an important etiological role of nonstenotic carotid disease in ESUS. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02313909.

Predictors of Recurrent Ischemic Stroke in Patients with Embolic Strokes of Undetermined Source and Effects of Rivaroxaban Versus Aspirin According to Risk Status: The NAVIGATE ESUS Trial.

BACKGROUND: Embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) identifies patients with cryptogenic ischemic stroke presumed due to embolism from several unidentified sources. Among patients with recent ESUS, we sought to determine independent predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke during treatment with aspirin or rivaroxaban and to assess the relative effects of these treatments according to risk. METHODS: Exploratory analyses of 7213 participants in the NAVIGATE ESUS international trial who were randomized to aspirin 100 mg/day or rivaroxaban 15 mg/day and followed for a median of 11 months, during which time there were 309 first recurrent ischemic strokes (4.6% per year). Baseline features were correlated with recurrent stroke by multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The 7 independent predictors of recurrent stroke were stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) prior to the qualifying stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 2.03 95% confidence internal [CI] 1.58-2.60), current tobacco user (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.24-2.12), age (HR 1.02 per year increase, 95%CI 1.01-1.03), diabetes (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.01-1.64), multiple acute infarcts on neuroimaging (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.09-2.02), aspirin use prior to qualifying stroke (HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.02-1.70), and time from qualifying stroke to randomization (HR .98, 95% CI .97-.99). The rate of recurrent stroke rate was 2.6% per year for participants without any of these risk factors, and increased by an average of 45% for each independent predictor (P < .001). There were no significant interactions between treatment effects and independent stroke predictors or stroke risk status. CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of ESUS patients, several features including prior stroke or TIA, advanced age, current tobacco user, multiple acute infarcts on neuroimaging, and diabetes independently identified those with an increased risk of ischemic stroke recurrence. The relative effects of rivaroxaban and aspirin were similar across the spectrum of independent stroke predictors and recurrent stroke risk status.

Branch atheromatous disease diagnosed as embolic stroke of undetermined source: A sub-analysis of NAVIGATE ESUS.

BACKGROUND: Branch atheromatous disease (BAD) is distinctive from large and small arterial diseases, which is single subcortical infarction larger than lacunar stroke in the territories of deep perforators without relevant arterial stenosis. BAD meets the current criteria of embolic stroke of undetermined source. We performed an exploratory analysis of BAD in patients recruited to NAVIGATE embolic stroke of undetermined source, a randomized controlled trial to compare rivaroxaban and aspirin in embolic stroke of undetermined source patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among 3972 stroke patients in cerebral hemispheres with intracranial arterial imaging, 502 (12.6%) patients met the criteria for BAD. BAD was associated with younger age (years; OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.96-0.98), race (Asian; OR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.44-2.21), region (Eastern Europe; OR: 2.49, 95% CI: 1.87-3.32), and higher National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (OR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.12-1.22) at randomization. During follow-up, stroke or systemic embolism (2.5%/year vs. 6.2%/year, p = 0.0022), stroke (2.1%/year vs. 6.2%/year, p = 0.0008), and ischemic stroke (2.1%/year vs. 5.9%/year, p = 0.0013) occurred less frequently in BAD than non-BAD patients. There were no differences in annual rates of stroke or systemic embolism (2.5%/year vs. 2.5%/year, HR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.33-3.14) or major bleeding (1.3%/year vs. 0.8%/year, HR: 1.51, 95% CI: 0.25-9.05) between rivaroxaban and aspirin groups among BAD patients. CONCLUSIONS: BAD was relatively common, especially in Asian and from Eastern Europe among embolic stroke of undetermined source patients. Stroke severity was higher at randomization but recurrence of stroke was fewer in BAD than non-BAD patients. The efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban and aspirin did not differ among BAD patients.

Recurrent Stroke With Rivaroxaban Compared With Aspirin According to Predictors of Atrial Fibrillation: Secondary Analysis of the NAVIGATE ESUS Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The NAVIGATE ESUS randomized clinical trial found that 15 mg of rivaroxaban per day does not reduce stroke compared with aspirin in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS); however, it substantially reduces stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Objective: To analyze whether rivaroxaban is associated with a reduction of recurrent stroke among patients with ESUS who have an increased risk of AF. Design, Setting, and Participants: Participants were stratified by predictors of AF, including left atrial diameter, frequency of premature atrial contractions, and HAVOC score, a validated scheme using clinical features. Treatment interactions with these predictors were assessed. Participants were enrolled between December 2014 and September 2017, and analysis began March 2018. Intervention: Rivaroxaban treatment vs aspirin. Main Outcomes and Measures: Risk of ischemic stroke. Results: Among 7112 patients with a mean (SD) age of 67 (9.8) years, the mean (SD) HAVOC score was 2.6 (1.8), the mean (SD) left atrial diameter was 3.8 (1.4) cm (n = 4022), and the median (interquartile range) daily frequency of premature atrial contractions was 48 (13-222). Detection of AF during follow-up increased for each tertile of HAVOC score: 2.3% (score, 0-2), 3.0% (score, 3), and 5.8% (score, >3); however, neither tertiles of the HAVOC score nor premature atrial contractions frequency impacted the association of rivaroxaban with recurrent ischemic stroke (P for interaction = .67 and .96, respectively). Atrial fibrillation annual incidence increased for each tertile of left atrial diameter (2.0%, 3.6%, and 5.2%) and for each tertile of premature atrial contractions frequency (1.3%, 2.9%, and 7.0%). Among the predefined subgroup of patients with a left atrial diameter of more than 4.6 cm (9% of overall population), the risk of ischemic stroke was lower among the rivaroxaban group (1.7% per year) compared with the aspirin group (6.5% per year) (hazard ratio, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.07-0.94; P for interaction = .02). Conclusions and Relevance: The HAVOC score, left atrial diameter, and premature atrial contraction frequency predicted subsequent clinical AF. Rivaroxaban was associated with a reduced risk of recurrent stroke among patients with ESUS and moderate or severe left atrial enlargement; however, this needs to be independently confirmed before influencing clinical practice.

Recovery kinetics following spinal deformity correction: a comparison of isolated cervical, thoracolumbar, and combined deformity morphometries.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: The postoperative recovery patterns of cervical deformity patients, thoracolumbar deformity patients, and patients with combined cervical and thoracolumbar deformities, all relative to one another, is not well understood. Clear objective benchmarks are needed to quantitatively define a "good" versus a "bad" postoperative recovery across multiple follow-up visits, varying deformity types, and guide expectations. PURPOSE: To objectively define and compare the complete 2-year postoperative recovery process among operative cervical only, thoracolumbar only, and combined deformity patients using area-under-the-curve (AUC) methodology. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: Retrospective review of 2 prospective, multicenter adult cervical and spinal deformity databases. PATIENT SAMPLE: One hundred seventy spinal deformity patients. OUTCOME MEASURES: Common health-related quality of life (HRQOL) assessments across both databases included the EuroQol 5-Dimension Questionnaire and Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) back pain assessment. In order to compare disability improvements, the Neck Disability Index (NDI) and the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) were merged into one outcome variable, the ODI-NDI. Both assessments are gauged on the same scale, with minimal question deviation. Sagittal Radiographic Alignment was also assessed at pre- and all postoperative time points. METHODS: Operative deformity patients >18 years old with baseline (BL) to 2-year HRQOLs were included. Patients were stratified by cervical only (C), thoracolumbar only (T), and combined deformities (CT). HRQOL and radiographic outcomes were compared within and between deformity groups. AUC normalization generated normalized HRQOL scores at BL and all follow-up intervals (6 weeks, 3 months, 1 year, and 2 year). Normalized scores were plotted against follow-up time interval. AUC was calculated for each follow-up interval, and total area was divided by cumulative follow-up length, determining overall, time-adjusted HRQOL recovery (Integrated Health State, IHS). Multiple linear regression models determined significant predictors of HRQOL discrepancies among deformity groups. RESULTS: One hundred seventy patients were included (27 C, 27 T, and 116 CT). Age, BMI, sex, smoking status, osteoporosis, depression, and BL HRQOL scores were similar among groups (p >. 05). T and CT patients had higher comorbidity severities (CCI: C 0.696, T 1.815, CT 1.699, p = .020). Posterior surgical approaches were most common (62.9%) followed by combined (28.8%) and anterior (6.5%). Standard HRQOL analysis found no significant differences among groups until 1-year follow-up, where C patients exhibited comparatively greater NRS back pain (4.88 vs. 3.65 vs. 3.28, p = .028). NRS Back pain differences between groups subsided by 2-years (p>.05). Despite C patients exhibiting significantly faster ODI-NDI minimal clinically important difference (MCID) achievement (33.3% vs. 0% vs. 23.0%, p < .001), all deformity groups exhibited similar ODI-NDI MCID achievement by 2-years (51.9% vs. 59.3% vs. 62.9%, p = 0.563). After HRQOL normalization, similar results were observed relative to the standard analysis (1-year NRS Back: C 1.17 vs. T 0.50 vs. CT 0.51, p < .001; 2-year NRS Back: 1.20 vs. 0.51 vs. 0.69, p = .060). C patients exhibited a worse NRS back normalized IHS (C 1.18 vs. T 0.58 vs. CT 0.63, p = .004), indicating C patients were in a greater state of postoperative back pain for a longer amount of time. Linear regression models determined postoperative distal junctional kyphosis (adjusted beta: 0.207, p = .039) and osteoporosis (adjusted beta: 0.269, p = .007) as the strongest predictors of a poor NRS back IHS (model summary: R2 = 0.177, p = .039). CONCLUSIONS: Despite C patients exhibiting a quicker rate of MCID disability (ODI-NDI) improvement, they exhibited a poorer overall recovery of back pain with worse NRS back scores compared with BL status and other deformity groups. Postoperative distal junctional kyphosis and osteoporosis were identified as primary drivers of a poor postoperative NRS back IHS. Utilization of the IHS, a single number adjusting for all postoperative HRQOL visits, in conjunction with predictive modelling may pose as an improved method of gauging the effect of surgical details and complications on a patient's entire recovery process.

Rationale, design, and baseline participant characteristics in the MRI and cognitive substudy of the cardiovascular outcomes for people using anticoagulation strategies trial.

BACKGROUND: Covert vascular disease of the brain manifests as infarcts, white matter hyperintensities, and microbleeds on MRI. Their cumulative effect is often a decline in cognition, motor impairment, and psychiatric disorders. Preventive therapies for covert brain ischemia have not been established but represent a huge unmet clinical need. AIMS: The MRI substudy examines the effects of the antithrombotic regimens in COMPASS on incident covert brain infarcts (the primary outcome), white matter hyperintensities, and cognitive and functional status in a sample of consenting COMPASS participants without contraindications to MRI. METHODS: COMPASS is a randomized superiority trial testing rivaroxaban 2.5 mg bid plus acetylsalicylic acid 100 mg and rivaroxaban 5 mg bid against acetylsalicylic acid 100 mg per day for the combined endpoint of MI, stroke, and cardiovascular death in individuals with stable coronary artery disease or peripheral artery disease. T1-weighted, T2-weighted, T2*-weighted, and FLAIR images were obtained close to randomization and near the termination of assigned antithrombotic therapy; biomarker and genetic samples at randomization and one month, and cognitive and functional assessment at randomization, after two years and at the end of study. RESULTS: Between March 2013 and May 2016, 1905 participants were recruited from 86 centers in 16 countries. Of these participants, 1760 underwent baseline MRI scans that were deemed technically adequate for interpretation. The mean age at entry of participants with interpretable MRI was 71 years and 23.5% were women. Coronary artery disease was present in 90.4% and 28.1% had peripheral artery disease. Brain infarcts were present in 34.8%, 29.3% had cerebral microbleeds, and 93.0% had white matter hyperintensities. The median Montreal Cognitive Assessment score was 26 (interquartile range 23-28). CONCLUSIONS: The COMPASS MRI substudy will examine the effect of the antithrombotic interventions on MRI-determined covert brain infarcts and cognition. Demonstration of a therapeutic effect of the antithrombotic regimens on brain infarcts would have implications for prevention of cognitive decline and provide insight into the pathogenesis of vascular cognitive decline.

Recovery Kinetics: Comparison of Patients Undergoing Primary or Revision Procedures for Adult Cervical Deformity Using a Novel Area Under the Curve Methodology.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available to objectively define what constitutes a "good" versus a "bad" recovery for operative cervical deformity (CD) patients. Furthermore, the recovery patterns of primary versus revision procedures for CD is poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To define and compare the recovery profiles of CD patients undergoing primary or revision procedures, utilizing a novel area-under-the-curve normalization methodology. METHODS: CD patients undergoing primary or revision surgery with baseline to 1-yr health-related quality of life (HRQL) scores were included. Clinical symptoms and HRQL were compared among groups (primary/revision). Normalized HRQL scores at baseline and follow-up intervals (3M, 6M, 1Y) were generated. Normalized HRQLs were plotted and area under the curve was calculated, generating one number describing overall recovery (Integrated Health State). Subanalysis identified recovery patterns through 2-yr follow-up. RESULTS: Eighty-three patients were included (45 primary, 38 revision). Age (61.3 vs 61.9), gender (F: 66.7% vs 63.2%), body mass index (27.7 vs 29.3), Charlson Comorbidity Index, frailty, and osteoporosis (20% vs 13.2%) were similar between groups (P > .05). Primary patients were more preoperatively neurologically symptomatic (55.6% vs 31.6%), less sagittally malaligned (cervical sagittal vertical axis [cSVA]: 32.6 vs 46.6; T1 slope: 28.8 vs 36.8), underwent more anterior-only approaches (28.9% vs 7.9%), and less posterior-only approaches (37.8% vs 60.5%), all P < .05. Combined approaches, decompressions, osteotomies, and construct length were similar between groups (P > .05). Revisions had longer op-times (438.0 vs 734.4 min, P = .008). Following surgery, complication rate was similar between groups (66.6% vs 65.8%, P = .569). Revision patients remained more malaligned (cSVA, TS-CL; P < .05) than primary patients until 1-yr follow-up (P > .05). Normalized HRQLs determined primary patients to exhibit less neck pain (numeric rating scale [NRS]) and myelopathy (modified Japanese Orthopaedic Association) symptoms through 1-yr follow-up compared to revision patients (P < .05). These differences subsided when following patients through 2 yr (P > .05). Despite similar 2-yr HRQL outcomes, revision patients exhibited worse neck pain (NRS) Integrated Health State recovery (P < .05). CONCLUSION: Despite both primary and revision patients exhibiting similar HRQL outcomes at final follow-up, revision patients were in a greater state of postoperative neck pain for a greater amount of time.

Rivaroxaban or aspirin for patent foramen ovale and embolic stroke of undetermined source: a prespecified subgroup analysis from the NAVIGATE ESUS trial.

BACKGROUND: Patent foramen ovale (PFO) is a contributor to embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). Subgroup analyses from previous studies suggest that anticoagulation could reduce recurrent stroke compared with antiplatelet therapy. We hypothesised that anticoagulant treatment with rivaroxaban, an oral factor Xa inhibitor, would reduce the risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke compared with aspirin among patients with PFO enrolled in the NAVIGATE ESUS trial. METHODS: NAVIGATE ESUS was a double-blinded, randomised, phase 3 trial done at 459 centres in 31 countries that assessed the efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban versus aspirin for secondary stroke prevention in patients with ESUS. For this prespecified subgroup analysis, cohorts with and without PFO were defined on the basis of transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) and transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE). The primary efficacy outcome was time to recurrent ischaemic stroke between treatment groups. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding, according to the criteria of the International Society of Thrombosis and Haemostasis. The primary analyses were based on the intention-to-treat population. Additionally, we did a systematic review and random-effects meta-analysis of studies in which patients with cryptogenic stroke and PFO were randomly assigned to receive anticoagulant or antiplatelet therapy. FINDINGS: Between Dec 23, 2014, and Sept 20, 2017, 7213 participants were enrolled and assigned to receive rivaroxaban (n=3609) or aspirin (n=3604). Patients were followed up for a mean of 11 months because of early trial termination. PFO was reported as present in 534 (7·4%) patients on the basis of either TTE or TOE. Patients with PFO assigned to receive aspirin had a recurrent ischaemic stroke rate of 4·8 events per 100 person-years compared with 2·6 events per 100 person-years in those treated with rivaroxaban. Among patients with known PFO, there was insufficient evidence to support a difference in risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke between rivaroxaban and aspirin (hazard ratio [HR] 0·54; 95% CI 0·22-1·36), and the risk was similar for those without known PFO (1·06; 0·84-1·33; pinteraction=0·18). The risks of major bleeding with rivaroxaban versus aspirin were similar in patients with PFO detected (HR 2·05; 95% CI 0·51-8·18) and in those without PFO detected (HR 2·82; 95% CI 1·69-4·70; pinteraction=0·68). The random-effects meta-analysis combined data from NAVIGATE ESUS with data from two previous trials (PICSS and CLOSE) and yielded a summary odds ratio of 0·48 (95% CI 0·24-0·96; p=0·04) for ischaemic stroke in favour of anticoagulation, without evidence of heterogeneity. INTERPRETATION: Among patients with ESUS who have PFO, anticoagulation might reduce the risk of recurrent stroke by about half, although substantial imprecision remains. Dedicated trials of anticoagulation versus antiplatelet therapy or PFO closure, or both, are warranted. FUNDING: Bayer and Janssen.